Early snapshot: Where things stand
We’ve passed the 17-game mark, which means the March picture is slowly coming into focus — think a fog lifting, not a miracle. According to Bart Torvik simulations, 17 teams look untouchable right now. That means the rest of us are left squinting at metrics, muttering about road wins, and wondering which teams will sweat it out in February.
Who’s already basically in (the “locks” club)
Here are the teams that, at least for now, look like they’ll be packing their dancing shoes: Big 12 — Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech; Big Ten — Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State; ACC — Duke, Virginia; Big East — UConn; SEC — Florida, Vanderbilt; WCC — Gonzaga. If one of them self-destructs, we’ll laugh and then cry softly.
Why road wins suddenly matter a lot
The committee and newer metrics really reward brave road-scheduling and wins away from home. Teams that go out and steal W’s in hostile gyms are getting extra credit — which is why some squads with sketchy home résumés still look pretty solid overall.
Alabama — Grade: B+
Bracket projection: No. 5 seed. Nate Oats has been daring with scheduling, and Alabama’s aggressive calendar has paid off: they’ve racked up a lot of quality wins, including a handful on the road that look very shiny to the committee. They’ve also been thrashed by some top teams and have their shortcomings on the glass, but the tough slate and those key road victories have them sitting comfortably for now. Not championship material yet, but plenty dangerous in March.
Indiana — Grade: D
Bracket projection: OUT. The Hoosiers have been underwhelming away from home and haven’t put together many wins against the best competition. A couple of nonconference victories that looked good on paper haven’t aged well, and the usual metrics are giving mixed signals. The schedule ahead actually offers chances to climb back in, but time is running out and the resume needs some late-season heroics.
North Carolina — Grade: B-
Bracket projection: No. 8 seed. UNC’s resume is solid but not flashy: a few decent wins, some sneaky road losses and overall numbers that say “you’ll make it, probably.” The problem is a lack of standout, jaw-dropping victories — they’ve got to string together some gutsy road performances or they’ll risk being an 8/9 coin flip come Selection Sunday.
Virginia Tech — Grade: B
Bracket projection: Last Four In. The Hokies have been part of a few wild games and have collected enough close-call wins (including overtime thrills) to keep their résumé spicy. Predictive metrics aren’t drooling over them, but they’ve avoided bad losses and have several quadrant wins. If they keep squeaking out those tight finishes, Mike Young’s crew will be in good shape.
TCU — Grade: C-
Bracket projection: First Four Out. The Frogs are maddening — a terrible Quad 4 loss sits on the résumé like a soggy sandwich, but they also boast some legitimately impressive neutral-site wins. Consistency is the issue: when they look brilliant, they look brilliant, and when they don’t, they really don’t. Right now they’re living on the bubble and will need a tidy string of wins to stop the heartburn.
Washington — Grade: D-
Bracket projection: OUT. Injuries have been a real buzzkill, and the Huskies missed big opportunities at home against quality opponents. The schedule softens up later, but the early skid in high-end games left a hole that’s hard to dig out of. Without a sudden hot streak, this résumé reads like a “maybe next year” note.
Final thought
Feb and March are when resumes get baptized by fire. A handful of teams already look safe, a few are treading water, and some need a minor miracle (or at least a nice road win or two). Enjoy the chaos — it’s what makes March Madness, well, madness.
