Quick snapshot
Welcome to the golf version of musical chairs: 156 players, one trophy, and a whole lot of nervous breathing. The PGA Championship has shifted into May and, like a serious person who started doing yoga, it’s become less about surprises and more about the big dogs taking over. Still, nine names stand out as the folks most likely to hoist the Wanamaker.
What to expect at Aronimink
Aronimink is a Donald Ross creation — think sneaky greens, subtle slopes and the old-school kind of trouble that punishes sloppy approach shots. You won’t win here by blasting it into oblivion; you need sharp irons, steady touch around the greens and the occasional booming drive to get out of trouble. Translation: this course rewards precision and patience, not heroics.
Top nine players to watch
Below are the nine players who, in descending order of how much my eyeballs and spreadsheets like them, seem most likely to win. Odds included for flavor — not gospel.
Scottie Scheffler — Odds: 4-1
Mr. Consistency. Scheffler’s been knocking on the winner’s door all season and his short game is basically a Swiss Army knife. If he gets off to a tidy start, expect him to run with it. He’s comfy with pressure and knows how to convert close calls into trophies.
Rory McIlroy — Odds: 9-1
Rory’s back with some pep in his step and enough major experience to be dangerous. He hasn’t cracked the top five in May PGAs lately, but when he locks in his approach play he becomes a real threat. He’s like a coiled spring — unpredictable in the best way.
Jon Rahm — Odds: 14-1
Rahm has that simmering intensity that can boil over into greatness. Last year he flirted with the lead and will be extra-motivated this time around. A strong start and some patience around the greens could turn him into a runaway train.
Cameron Young — Odds: 16-1
Young is rolling lately — the guy’s been gaining strokes like it’s a hobby. He’s won big regular-tour events and nearly stole the Masters. Comfortable on Ross-style tracks and hitting irons crisp, he looks poised to make another major charge.
Xander Schauffele — Odds: 20-1
Xander can golf in his sleep and still finish top 10 in a major. A lackluster event here or there doesn’t panic him. If his short game sings alongside his excellent ball-striking, he could jump from contender to champion quicker than you can say “birdie binge.”
Matt Fitzpatrick — Odds: 23-1
Fitzpatrick has been playing like someone who reads greens for a living. He’s added wins to his resume this season and is one of the most complete players when his driving cooperates. On a course that rewards approach accuracy, he’s a very real problem for the rest of the field.
Ludvig Åberg — Odds: 20-1
Åberg’s season has that zing you remember from other breakout runs. He’s getting more well-rounded by the week, especially with his tee-to-green game. Sunday slip-ups have hurt him in the past, but if he irons those out he’s got the toolkit to win a big one.
Bryson DeChambeau — Odds: 19-1
Bryson’s length can be a huge advantage, especially when the course gives up a few short par-fives to attack. He’s had mixed results recently, but his record at major championships suggests he belongs in the conversation. If his iron game and green-reading line up, he’ll be trouble.
Chris Gotterup — Odds: 76-1
Underdog alert. Gotterup has had a hot start to the year and while the wins cooled off a bit, he’s still swinging with confidence. At home-field-ish events, local vibes can help — and if his recent form continues, a surprising run isn’t out of the question.
Final thoughts
This isn’t a feel-good flick where a total unknown strolls in and takes it home (usually). The move to May favors the heavy hitters who can hit precise approaches and scramble when necessary. If you want data-driven props and projected leaderboards, some models like SportsLine publish projections that people follow — but for pure entertainment value, pick your favorite personality and root wildly.
