Why the NFL turns into a roster swap meet every spring
Every offseason the NFL turns into a giant game of musical chairs. Teams slice and trade players because long-term deals often aren’t fully guaranteed — and when money and performance stop matching up, someone’s seat gets pulled.
Some moves are simple: a player wants a fresh start. Other times a new coach or GM wants a different look and decides a veteran is expendable. The result is a lot of drama, spreadsheets and, yes, dead money.
Dead money and the magic (or horror) of prorated bonuses
Dead money is the leftover cap charge when a player leaves but the prorated pieces of their signing/option bonuses accelerate onto the current cap. Think of it as the ghost of contracts past haunting your salary cap — you don’t pay the player, but the cap still takes the hit.
There are quirks: if a move happens after June 1, only the current year’s proration counts right away and the rest can be pushed into the next league year. Teams can also designate two players per year as post-June 1 cuts to delay some of that pain, but trades don’t get that same loophole.
Players who could be wearing new colors in 2026
Below are 15 big-name players whose contracts, play or awkward timing make them candidates to be traded or shown the exit in 2026. Numbers in each blurb are the key 2026 cap figures — cap hit, scheduled pay, the dead-money exposure and the rough cap savings if the player leaves.
Tua Tagovailoa — QB, Dolphins
2026 snapshot: cap number about $56.27M; scheduled pay roughly $55M; dead money if released jumps to roughly $67.4M (thanks to big guarantees). Cutting Tua would be a nuclear cap move — there’s so much guaranteed money that releasing him actually creates a massive dead-money charge, so the Dolphins would likely need a post-June 1 plan (and some creative bookkeeping) to make it work. In short: it’s messy, emotional and expensive.
Kyler Murray — QB, Cardinals
2026 snapshot: cap number around $52.66M; scheduled pay about $42.54M; dead money near $15.63M; potential cap relief roughly $37.03M. Arizona seems ready to move on after benching and injuries. A trade is likely, though Arizona may have to eat some guaranteed money to get it done. If no trade happens, cutting him early could leave a significant dead-money mark.
Kirk Cousins — QB, Falcons
2026 snapshot: cap number near $24.6M; pay about $12.1M; dead money roughly $22.5M. Cousins’ deal was reshaped to make a post-June 1 release feasible, so the Falcons have a clear escape hatch. New coach history or not, the contract architecture practically begs for a June-style split if the team wants to move on.
A.J. Brown — WR, Eagles
2026 snapshot: cap number about $23.39M; pay ~$29M; dead money roughly $21.79M; modest short-term cap relief if moved. Brown’s on-field fit and dating-with-the-offense frustrations have been a storyline, and Philly’s penchant for option bonuses makes his contract complicated. A trade after June 1 is the cleanest route to avoid accelerating chunks of bonus proration into 2026.
Maxx Crosby — EDGE, Raiders
2026 snapshot: cap number about $35.79M; pay roughly $30.78M; dead money near $5.1M; big cap savings if moved. Crosby’s relationship with the Raiders and his public grievances over being shut down make him a plausible candidate to force a move. Trading him would deliver major cap relief, though it would need to line up with owner and front-office willingness.
Tyreek Hill — WR, Dolphins
2026 snapshot: cap number roughly $51.13M; pay ~$36M; dead money around $28.25M; solid cap savings possible. A severe knee injury combined with a monster cap number makes Hill a name to watch — his roster bonus and guarantees create a deadline for the Dolphins to make a decision by early March.
Geno Smith — QB, Raiders
2026 snapshot: cap number about $26.5M; pay $26.5M; dead money around $18.5M; moderate cap savings. Smith’s 2025 performance dropped off a cliff and the Raiders are set to draft a top rookie QB. With his remaining guarantees and declining play, expect some resolution before mid-March.
Brandon Aiyuk — WR, 49ers
2026 snapshot: cap number about $14.64M; scheduled pay around $27M; dead money roughly $13.33M. Aiyuk’s situation has been soap-operatic — missed meetings, rehab and a stint away from the team led the 49ers to void some guarantees. The split looks inevitable, and the cap math means the team won’t get huge 2026 relief but may pick up a small credit next year.
Marlon Humphrey — CB, Ravens
2026 snapshot: cap number ~ $26.28M; pay about $19.25M; dead money roughly $7.03M. After a down season and a higher-than-normal yardage allowed figure, Humphrey’s hefty cap number for a cornerback makes him someone Baltimore could consider moving, especially if they want to reshuffle the secondary dollars.
Marshon Lattimore — CB, Commanders
2026 snapshot: cap number about $18.5M; pay $18.5M; dead money none. Lattimore’s early season injuries and inconsistent play put him squarely on the watch list. With no dead-money albatross, a cut or trade would be a relatively simple cap transaction if the Commanders decide the fit isn’t right.
T.J. Hockenson — TE, Vikings
2026 snapshot: cap number near $21.3M; pay around $16M; dead money roughly $12.47M. Hockenson hasn’t returned to top form after a major knee injury, and his production dip makes his contract look expensive for a tight end. Minnesota could free up mid-level cap space by parting ways, depending on how they value tight-end production going forward.
Justin Fields — QB, Jets
2026 snapshot: cap number about $23M; pay $20M; dead money roughly $13M. Fields’ short-term deal didn’t pan out. With benching and inconsistent play, the Jets have an out via post-June 1 designation that could be used to manage the cap hit if they want to move on.
L’Jarius Sneed — CB, Titans
2026 snapshot: cap number about $19.56M; pay ~$16M; dead money around $8.12M. Sneed’s performance and availability since the big contract have been frustrating; opposing quarterbacks have had big numbers when targeting him. March deadlines matter here — some of his salary becomes fully guaranteed mid-March, so the timing will dictate Tennessee’s options.
Elgton Jenkins — C, Packers
2026 snapshot: cap number about $24.33M; pay roughly $20M; dead money around $4.8M. Jenkins’ move to center hasn’t gone smoothly and injuries plus contract gripes create friction. With a big cap hit for a center, Green Bay could look for cheaper alternatives if they want to reset the line and their budget.
Jawann Taylor — OT, Chiefs
2026 snapshot: cap number roughly $27.39M; pay $20M; dead money about $7.39M. Taylor hasn’t matched his payday since signing, and there’s a cheaper swing-tackle waiting in the wings. Chiefs brass love continuity, but if they see better value elsewhere, Taylor could be the odd man out.
What to watch and when
Key dates matter: early March guarantees vest for many players, and March 13–15 can make or break whether a player’s salary becomes guaranteed. Teams juggle post-June 1 designations, option bonus choices and trade timing to manage the pain. Translation: expect a lot of late-night phone calls, tense owner meetings and spreadsheet gymnastics.
Bottom line
The 2026 offseason is poised to bring a parade of surprises — some emotional, some boringly clinical (salary math is a heartbreaker). Big names, big money and big decisions mean plenty of roster movement. Keep your popcorn ready; NFL cap theater is entering act two.
