Weekend vibes: Almost March, a little chaos
It’s the second-to-last weekend of the regular season, which means conference standings are getting spicy and bracket brains are twitching. Big 12, ACC and SEC all have games that could shove teams up or down the pecking order. If you’re planning to shout at the TV, warm up those vocal cords now.
Game plan and housekeeping
Tip times below are Eastern and the odds referenced were from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of writing. I ripped out all the links and photos so you can focus on the takes, the trash talk and the sweet, sweet inevitability of late-game free throws.
No. 11 Virginia at No. 1 Duke (12 p.m., ESPN)
Duke has been smacking teams around lately — big wins and big margins — but Virginia is on a nine-game streak and plays like it enjoys making life difficult for opponents. Cameron Indoor is loud and weird and Duke’s still the favorite, but UVA typically grinds games down into long, slow fits of unpleasantness for the home team. I’ll take the points and expect a tight contest that Duke ultimately wins.
Pick: Virginia +9.5 (Boone)
San Diego State vs. New Mexico (2 p.m., CBS)
The Mountain West is still up-for-grabs and this rivalry game smells like playoff intensity. New Mexico gets the advantage of being at The Pit — a rowdy, pressure-filled place — and the Lobos are due for revenge after dropping the earlier matchup. This one should be close, but I like New Mexico to get the nod and cover.
Pick: New Mexico -3 (Boone)
No. 16 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Iowa State (4 p.m., Fox)
Hilton Coliseum has been a fortress for Iowa State this season; nobody’s left with a win there besides the Cyclones. Texas Tech’s hot offensively, led by Christian Anderson, so a shootout or at least a high-energy slugfest is possible. I’m giving the edge to the visitors to keep it close — take the points with Texas Tech.
Pick: Texas Tech +7 (Boone)
No. 14 Kansas at No. 2 Arizona (4 p.m., ESPN)
Kansas beat Arizona the last time these teams met, and Jayhawks fans will parade that like a banner. Arizona, though, has been the steadier outfit recently and tends to make inconsistent teams pay for mistakes. In Tucson, I expect Arizona to put the hammer down.
Pick: Arizona -10 (Boone)
No. 17 Alabama at No. 22 Tennessee (6 p.m., ESPN)
Alabama has been rolling with a multi-game streak but Tennessee is tough at home and generally more reliable in the SEC. This feels like a game decided by micro-moments — a rebound here, a turnover there. I’ll back Alabama with the points and call it a close affair.
Pick: Alabama +4 (Boone)
No. 20 Arkansas at No. 7 Florida (4 p.m., ESPN)
Most of our crew thinks Arkansas will keep this one tight while Florida collects the W. Arkansas’ scorer-of-the-week energy has made them dangerous late; I expect the Razorbacks to hang around and cover, but Florida to sneak out on top if the Gators can hit their free throws.
Pick: Arkansas +8 (Boone)
Late-night note
Gonzaga’s final regular-season game as a WCC member — a late tip against Saint Mary’s — has league-title implications, so if you’ve got late-night coffee, cue that up. Otherwise, hydrate, snack responsibly and enjoy the chaos. College basketball at this point is basically cinematic tension with sneakers.
Wrap-up
Saturday’s slate is packed, the spreads are juicy and the human drama is guaranteed. I gave my quirky, semi-professional opinions above — use them, ignore them, or tell me I’m wrong after the buzzer. Either way, it’s the best time of year to argue about basketball.
